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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.